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How Our League's Draft Values Have Evolved (Rounds 1-5)

6/26/2025 by Dylan

Key Takeaways

  • The QB Quandary: While the first QB off the board has seen some wild swings, the overall number of QBs taken early remains low, though trending up.
  • RB Reign (Mostly): RBs have consistently dominated early rounds, but 2024 showed a significant dip in favor of WRs.
  • WR Ascendancy is Real: Wide Receivers have seen a clear upward trend, becoming the most drafted position in the first five rounds in 2024.
  • TEs - A Sprinkling of Scarcity: Tight Ends remain a small, situational fraction of early-round picks.

Introduction: Why Are We Looking At This?

Every season starts with the draft—the single most important day on our league's calendar. It's where strategies are tested, gambles are made, and the foundations of a championship roster are laid. But as the NFL changes, do we change with it? This analysis explores the evolution of our league's drafting philosophy. By examining a decade and a half of data, we can see exactly how our collective valuation of QBs, RBs, WRs, and TEs has shifted.

The Approach: How We Crunched the Numbers

To understand these trends, we focused on the most impactful part of the draft: the first five rounds. We analyzed every pick from 2009 to 2024 to find patterns in two main areas:


  • Urgency for Elite Talent: By tracking the overall pick number of the first player taken at each position, we can see when the "run" on top-tier talent typically begins.
  • Strategic Investment: By counting the total number of players taken from each position in these early rounds, we get a clear picture of our league's strategic priorities year after year.

Finding #1: The "First Off The Board" - Chasing Elite Talent

When the top talent at a position flies off the draft board, it often signals a shift in perceived value or scarcity. Here's how that has played out in our league.

Line chart showing the overall draft pick of the first player drafted by position from 2009 to 2024. The Y-axis is inverted, so a lower line means an earlier pick.
Chart 1: The overall draft pick number when the first QB, RB, WR, and TE were selected each season. A lower number on the Y-axis means an earlier pick.

Key Observations from Chart 1

  • Running Backs - The Consistent Kings: Unsurprisingly, the first RB has almost invariably been a top-3 pick, frequently going #1 overall. This underscores the long-held belief in the importance of an elite RB anchor.
  • Quarterbacks - A Rollercoaster Ride: The draft spot for the QB1 has been the most volatile, ranging from a top-3 pick to lasting well into the 30s, suggesting our league's approach to the position varies wildly year-to-year.
  • Wide Receivers - Early and Earlier: The first WR off the board has trended towards being an earlier pick, with recent seasons seeing the WR1 go #1 or #2 overall.
  • Tight Ends - Scarcity Drives Spikes: The TE1 draft position also shows considerable variance. Years with a clear "generational" talent see them go very early.

Finding #2: Shaping the Core - Positional Breakdown in Rounds 1-5

The first five rounds are where teams build their foundation. How has our league allocated these crucial picks across the positions?

Bar chart showing the raw count of QB, RB, WR, and TE picks in the first 5 rounds from 2009 to 2024.
Chart 2: The raw count of QBs, RBs, WRs, and TEs selected in the first five rounds of each draft.
Stacked bar chart showing the percentage breakdown of QB, RB, WR, and TE picks in the first 5 rounds from 2009 to 2024.
Chart 3: The percentage breakdown of QBs, RBs, WRs, and TEs selected (out of all QB/RB/WR/TE picks) within the first five rounds each season.

Key Observations from Charts 2 & 3

  • Running Backs - The Longstanding Majority: For most of our history, RBs have made up 40-45% of early picks. However, 2024 saw a dramatic shift, with RBs accounting for only ~32%.
  • Wide Receivers - The Steady Climb to the Top: The investment in WRs has trended upwards, culminating in 2024 where they constituted a commanding 48% of early-round selections.
  • Quarterbacks - A Modest but Growing Presence: The total number of QBs taken in the first five rounds has remained relatively low but saw a notable increase in 2023 and 2024.
  • Tight Ends - Consistent Scarcity: TEs consistently represent the smallest portion of picks in the first five rounds.

Conclusion & What This Means For You

Our league's drafting tendencies are clearly not set in stone. We adapt, react, and evolve.

  • The WR Revolution is Here: If you're waiting on WRs, you might be missing the boat.
  • QB Value is Subjective: While more QBs are creeping into the early rounds, the timing of the first QB is still a wild card.
  • RB Scarcity Still Matters, But...: The 2024 data showing a dip in early RB investment is intriguing. Is this a one-off or the start of a new trend?
  • Adapt or Be Left Behind: Being aware of these historical patterns can inform your strategy, but always be ready to adapt to the draft room dynamics!

What are your big takeaways from this data? Did any of these trends surprise you? Let the debate begin!