6/27/2025 by Dylan
Key Takeaways
- Dan, The Luckiest of All: Over his career, Dan has benefited the most from "schedule luck," facing opponents who scored an average of 5.7 points below the league average each week.
- Will's Unlucky Path: On the flip side, Will has consistently faced the toughest schedules, with his opponents scoring an average of 2.0 points above the league average every single game.
- Jake, the Heartbreak King: While having a fairly neutral schedule overall, Jake has suffered the most "unlucky losses" (losing despite scoring above the weekly median) and accumulated the fewest "lucky wins".
- The 2015 Season Was a Wild Ride: Zach's 2015 season stands out as one of the unluckiest on record, while Dylan's dominant 12-win season was significantly aided by a very favorable schedule.
Introduction: Was It Skill, or Was It Luck?
It's the age-old question that fuels arguments in every fantasy league: Was your championship a masterful display of skill, or did you just get lucky? Did your rival miss the playoffs because of bad decisions, or because they faced a gauntlet of high-scoring opponents week after week?
This deep dive attempts to answer those questions by quantifying "luck." We analyzed every regular-season matchup in league history to measure schedule difficulty and identify the "lucky wins" and "unlucky losses" that define a fantasy season.
The Approach: How We Measured Luck
We defined luck through two primary metrics:
- Schedule Luck Score: For each game, we calculated the difference between an owner's opponent's score and the weekly league average. A positive score means you faced a tougher-than-average opponent (unlucky), while a negative score means you faced an easier one (lucky). We then summed this for each season and averaged it over a manager's career.
- Lucky Wins & Unlucky Losses: A Lucky Win is a victory where your score was below the league's median score for that week. An Unlucky Loss is a loss where your score was above the league's median score for that week.
Finding #1: The All-Time Luck Rankings
Who has the fantasy gods smiled upon the most over the years? This chart shows the career average schedule luck for every manager. A negative bar means a "lucky" career schedule, while a positive bar means an "unlucky" one.
This chart provides a definitive look at who has consistently faced juggernauts and who has feasted on weaker opponents. While skill ultimately prevails, it's clear some managers have had a much steeper hill to climb.
Finding #2: The Art of the 'Lucky Win' and the Pain of the 'Unlucky Loss'
Beating the median score is a good benchmark for a strong week. But sometimes, a low score is enough to win, and sometimes, a high score isn't enough. This chart shows the career totals for these pivotal game outcomes.
Key Observations
- Jake's Pain, Jack's Gain: Jake leads the league in heartbreaking "unlucky losses" while having one of the higher totals for "lucky wins," suggesting his seasons are a true rollercoaster. Conversely, Jack has been exceptional at avoiding unlucky losses relative to his win totals.
- The Unluckiest Season Ever?: Sean's 2012 season, where he suffered 5 unlucky losses, stands as a monument to fantasy pain—a strong team consistently undone by facing that week's top scorer.
Finding #3: A Season-by-Season View of Fortune
Luck isn't consistent; it ebbs and flows. This heatmap visualizes every manager's schedule luck score for every season they've played. Bright red indicates a brutally difficult schedule, while deep blue signifies a cakewalk.
Key Observations
- Legendary Unlucky Seasons: Zach's 2015 season (+192 luck score) and Sean's 2012 season (+176) are some of the toughest schedules any manager has ever faced.
- The Golden Path: Dylan's 2015 season (-175) and Dan's 2023 season (-149) were paved with some of the weakest opposition in league history, providing a significant tailwind for their successful campaigns.
Conclusion: Embrace the Chaos
While we strive for control through skillful drafting and savvy waiver moves, a significant portion of our fantasy fate is left to the randomness of the schedule.
- Luck is Real and Measurable: We now have the data to back up claims of a "tough schedule" or a "lucky run."
- A High Score is Your Best Defense: The best way to mitigate bad luck is to consistently post high scores that can withstand even your opponent's best week.
- Acknowledge Fortune: The next time you see a manager with a losing record despite high points-for, or a division leader with mediocre scoring, remember the significant role that schedule luck plays in every season.