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First Round Fortunes: The Blessings and Curses of the First Round

6/28/2025 by Dylan

Key Takeaways

  • The Power of #1: The #1 overall pick boasts the highest playoff appearance rate in our league's history at 62.5%.
  • The "Value Zone": Picking from the 6th to 8th slots has surprisingly yielded some of the best average final standings, suggesting this is a sweet spot for value.
  • The Cursed Slot?: Picking 3rd overall has historically been a tough spot, resulting in the worst average finish and a low playoff rate. The 11th pick also has a poor track record, though with a much smaller sample size.
  • Boon vs. Bust: The #1 pick has led to a championship, but has also resulted in a dismal 12th place finish, proving nothing is guaranteed.

Introduction: The Weight of a First Round Pick

The first round of the fantasy draft is filled with hope, pressure, and league-altering decisions. Do you play it safe with a workhorse running back, or swing for the fences on a high-ceiling receiver? And more importantly, does where you pick in that first round actually dictate your fate?


This deep dive analyzes the historical outcomes of every first-round draft slot. We're looking to see if there are "golden tickets," "cursed positions," and what the data says about the correlation between draft order and season success.

The Approach: Charting First Round Success

We joined our historical draft data with final season standings to analyze each first-round pick from two angles:


  1. Average Final Standing: For each draft slot (1st, 2nd, 3rd, etc.), what was the average final rank of the manager who picked there? (Lower is better).
  2. Playoff Rate: What percentage of the time did a manager picking from a specific slot make the playoffs? (Assumes a playoff spot is a finish < playoff_team_count for that season).

Finding #1: The Sweet Spot for Season Finish

Is picking earlier always better? This chart shows the average final season standing for each draft slot in the first round.

A bar chart showing the average final standing for each first-round draft slot. Slots 8 and 6 have the best average finish.
Chart 1: Average Final Standing by Draft Slot. Surprisingly, the middle-to-late picks have often yielded better final results than the very top picks.

Key Observations

  • The Mid-Round Advantage: The 8th and 6th picks have historically produced the best average finish in the league. This could indicate that managers in these spots can react to the board and find better value than those locked into a top-2 or top-3 player who might underperform.
  • Top Picks Are Good, Not Great: The #1 and #2 picks deliver solid results, with average finishes inside the top 5, but they don't dominate as one might expect.
  • The Treacherous Third: The #3 overall pick has been a statistical nightmare, resulting in the worst average finish of any slot with a full history.

Finding #2: The Path to the Playoffs

A good finish is nice, but making the playoffs is the first step to a championship. Which draft slot gives you the best odds of making the postseason dance?

A bar chart showing the playoff appearance rate by first-round draft slot. The #1 pick has the highest rate at over 60%.
Chart 2: Playoff Rate by Draft Slot. The #1 pick provides the surest path to the playoffs.

Key Observations

  • #1 is Still #1: When it comes to simply making the playoffs, the #1 overall pick is still the king, giving managers a massive 62.5% chance of a postseason berth.
  • The Unlucky Ends: The #3, #9, and #7 picks have the lowest playoff rates among full-season slots, each at 31% or lower, reinforcing the idea that these can be tricky positions to draft from.

The #1 Pick: Boon or Bust?

The manager with the first overall pick carries the highest expectations. Here are the best and worst outcomes in league history from that coveted position.

The Ultimate Boon: The best outcome for a #1 pick was in 2010, when Nick drafted Adrian Peterson and went on to finish 1st place, proving the pick can be a direct path to a championship.

The Crushing Bust: The worst outcome for a #1 pick came in 2024, when Will selected Christian McCaffrey and stumbled to a disappointing 12th place finish, a cautionary tale for all.

Conclusion: It's What You Do With It

While the data shows clear trends and value spots, a high draft pick is an opportunity, not a guarantee.


  • Picking #1 gives you the best odds to make the playoffs, but not necessarily the best average finish.
  • Be wary of the #3 pick! It has historically been the most challenging spot.
  • The middle of the draft (picks 6-8) seems to be a "value zone" where managers have consistently outperformed their draft position.